Spread: Bills (-8.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (33%) · Jets at 53¢ · $93K held · ends Nov 15

Bills48¢Jets52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.7K

Combined PnL

$15.28

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills48%

Jets53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets3 traders

Total Value$48.3K

Total Shares92,020

Combined PnL-$450.17

Bills6 traders

Total Value$43.9K

Total Shares92,475

Combined PnL+$465.45

Jets — 33%Bills — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBills 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jetsavg 53¢	$48.4K	$47.9K	-$456.66	57% 3574-2660 (6234)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Billsavg 47¢	$34.9K	$35.3K	+$371.28	49% 635-674 (1309)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Billsavg 47¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$66.96	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Billsavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$17.36	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Jetsavg 53¢	$500	$500	+$0	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 53¢	$265	$262.5	-$2.5
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5
SN SnakeBallCTR	Billsavg 47¢	$381.69	$385.75	+$4.06	47% 895-994 (1889)
38 38791873984189	Jetsavg 53¢	$621.67	$338.1	+$6.73	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
GC GC-PCTR	Billsavg 47¢	$262.26	$265.05	+$2.79	37% 353-603 (956)
fyrskenCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$138	$141	+$3	52% 56-51 (107)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jetsavg 53¢	$31.97	$31.73	-$0.25	50% 1587-1614 (3201)

takeormake

Jets

Invested

$48,405.93

Value

$47.9K

PnL

-$456.66

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bills

Invested

$34,899.96

Value

$35.3K

PnL

+$371.28

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bills

Invested

$6,294.45

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$66.96

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,482.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$17.36

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

NM-PARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Invested

$381.69

Value

$385.75

PnL

+$4.06

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

38791873984189

Jets

Invested

$621.67

Value

$338.1

PnL

+$6.73

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

GC-PCTR

Bills

Invested

$262.26

Value

$265.05

PnL

+$2.79

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

fyrskenCTR

Bills

Invested

$138

Value

$141

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

56-51 (107)

Pan9X<$100

Jets

Invested

$31.97

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBills 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.