Spread: Packers (-2.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (25%) · Packers at 56¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
8
Packers 25%
$10.3K
-$1.32
55.1¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Packersavg 55¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$50.16 | 54% 529-455 (984) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Vikingsavg 45¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$48.54 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Vikingsavg 43¢ | $113.16 | $113.16 | -$0 | 52% 773-714 (1487) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 41.2¢ | $84.84 | $88.58 | +$3.74 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Packersavg 63.5¢ | $62.82 | $56.42 | -$6.4 | 46% 161-187 (348) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 45¢ | $20.79 | $20.56 | -$0.23 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 44¢ | $4.73 | $4.62 | -$0.11 | 27% 52-141 (193) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $2.52 | $2.58 | +$0.06 | 49% 1077-1133 (2210) |
Invested
$5,517.88
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$50.16
Record
54%
529-455 (984)
Invested
$4,469.55
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$48.54
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$113.16
Value
$113.16
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
773-714 (1487)
Invested
$84.84
Value
$88.58
PnL
+$3.74
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$62.82
Value
$56.42
PnL
-$6.4
Record
46%
161-187 (348)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$20.56
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.11
Record
27%
52-141 (193)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
1077-1133 (2210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.