Spread: Packers (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (100%) · Vikings at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
5
Vikings 100%
$4.2K
$442.54
51¢ → 56.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Vikingsavg 51¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$249.97 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
IC ic4cream | Vikingsavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$163.25 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
GA Gaditima | Vikingsavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $142.5 | +$15 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Vikingsavg 52.6¢ | $89.94 | $97.43 | +$7.49 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Vikingsavg 51¢ | $77.02 | $83.85 | +$6.83 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$2,124.74
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$249.97
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$1,387.64
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$163.25
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
Invested
$127.5
Value
$142.5
PnL
+$15
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$89.94
Value
$97.43
PnL
+$7.49
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$77.02
Value
$83.85
PnL
+$6.83
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.