Bills vs. Jets
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (33%) · Bills at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Bills
6
Bills 33%
$3.4K
-$15.29
81.5¢ → 81¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBills at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Billsavg 81.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$21.1 | 4% 21-541 (562) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Jetsavg 18¢ | $108 | $116.48 | +$6 | 3% 7-220 (227) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Jetsavg 18.8¢ | $112.33 | $116 | +$1.33 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 19.6¢ | $49.12 | $47.5 | -$1.62 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Billsavg 81¢ | $21.87 | $21.87 | +$0 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 18.6¢ | $16.01 | $16.11 | +$0.1 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$3,089.36
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$21.1
Record
4%
21-541 (562)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$108
Value
$116.48
PnL
+$6
Record
3%
7-220 (227)
Invested
$112.33
Value
$116
PnL
+$1.33
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$49.12
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$1.62
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
Invested
$21.87
Value
$21.87
PnL
+$0
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$16.01
Value
$16.11
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.