Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 52¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

-$33.67

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares14,418

Combined PnL-$0.17

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,705

Combined PnL-$33.5

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 52¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$58.04	49% 263-278 (541)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$9.47	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 48¢	$714.17	$758.81	+$44.64	42% 291-408 (699)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 52¢	$804.91	$742.99	-$61.92	3% 19-524 (543)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 50¢	$661.5	$674.73	+$13.23	49% 507-532 (1039)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$970	$485	+$11.4	52% 784-728 (1512)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$267.58	$269.25	+$1.67	26% 153-428 (581)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$242.5	+$2.5	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$754.37	$123.96	+$2.9	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$13.53	$11	+$0.47	49% 1083-1137 (2220)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$6,035.71

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$58.04

Record

49%

263-278 (541)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$5,247.93

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$9.47

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$714.17

Value

$758.81

PnL

+$44.64

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$804.91

Value

$742.99

PnL

-$61.92

Record

19-524 (543)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$661.5

Value

$674.73

PnL

+$13.23

Record

49%

507-532 (1039)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$970

Value

$485

PnL

+$11.4

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$267.58

Value

$269.25

PnL

+$1.67

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$754.37

Value

$123.96

PnL

+$2.9

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.53

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.