Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$72.63
45¢ → 46.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $924.48 | $955.3 | +$30.82 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45.1¢ | $748.47 | $766.14 | +$23.29 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $549.45 | $567.77 | +$18.31 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 47.9¢ | $220.99 | $216.88 | -$4.11 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.9¢ | $111.97 | $108.81 | -$3.16 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $109.02 | $108.07 | -$0.95 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 52.6¢ | $6.6 | $6.71 | +$0.11 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $13.74 | $5.89 | +$0.1 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$924.48
Value
$955.3
PnL
+$30.82
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$748.47
Value
$766.14
PnL
+$23.29
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$549.45
Value
$567.77
PnL
+$18.31
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
Invested
$220.99
Value
$216.88
PnL
-$4.11
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.