Rams vs. Cardinals
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (71%) · Rams at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Rams
7
Rams 71%
$2.3K
$1.65
78¢ → 78.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Ramsavg 78¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$7.25 | 48% 134-148 (282) |
BO BoomLaLa | Ramsavg 78¢ | $333.84 | $333.84 | +$0 | 12% 22-167 (189) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Ramsavg 78¢ | $234 | $234 | +$0 | 3% 7-224 (231) |
 nigiri99CTR | Cardinalsavg 22.6¢ | $243.3 | $231.13 | -$12.18 | 51% 105-102 (207) |
38 38791873984189 | Ramsavg 78¢ | $203.45 | $205.25 | +$1.8 | 48% 644-687 (1331) |
OD OddstormCTR | Cardinalsavg 22¢ | $118 | $122.63 | +$4.63 | 11% 11-92 (103) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ramsavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $23.55 | +$0.15 | 48% 373-401 (774) |
Invested
$1,130.87
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.25
Record
48%
134-148 (282)
Invested
$333.84
Value
$333.84
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
22-167 (189)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$234
Value
$234
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
7-224 (231)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$243.3
Value
$231.13
PnL
-$12.18
Record
51%
105-102 (207)
Invested
$203.45
Value
$205.25
PnL
+$1.8
Record
48%
644-687 (1331)
Invested
$118
Value
$122.63
PnL
+$4.63
Record
11%
11-92 (103)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$23.55
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
373-401 (774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.