Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

-$0.94

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,377

Combined PnL+$61.38

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,389

Combined PnL-$62.32

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$61.72	53% 554-484 (1038)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$25.7	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$17.34	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
73 739633786CTR	Underavg 48¢	$854.88	$845.97	-$8.91	12% 27-207 (234)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48¢	$801.67	$793.32	-$8.35	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$99.12	$98.09	-$1.03	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48¢	$167.64	$42.05	-$0.39	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$19.79	$19.19	-$0.6	56% 663-529 (1192)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 53¢	$17.72	$17.38	-$0.33	47% 1186-1358 (2544)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$6,418.43

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$61.72

Record

53%

554-484 (1038)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,467.38

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.7

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,664.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17.34

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

739633786CTR

Under

Invested

$854.88

Value

$845.97

PnL

-$8.91

Record

12%

27-207 (234)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$801.67

Value

$793.32

PnL

-$8.35

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Invested

$99.12

Value

$98.09

PnL

-$1.03

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$167.64

Value

$42.05

PnL

-$0.39

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.79

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$17.72

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$0.33

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.