Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 214.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$7.64

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 48.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,491

Combined PnL+$52.02

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,731

Combined PnL-$44.38

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$51.92	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$41.09	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	42% 547-747 (1294)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51.5¢	$523.58	$135.42	+$3.66	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$71.07	$69	-$2.07	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$15.51	$14.1	-$1.41	46% 621-730 (1351)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$14	$14.1	+$0.1	56% 663-529 (1192)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$7.61	$3.83	-$0.01	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$3.36	$2.43	+$0.04	53% 1883-1643 (3526)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,730.52

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$51.92

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,816.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$41.09

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$523.58

Value

$135.42

PnL

+$3.66

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.07

Value

$69

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.51

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.61

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.36

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.