Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bills vs. Jets: O/U 48.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 43¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$29.93

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 42.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,704

Combined PnL+$56.41

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,705

Combined PnL-$26.48

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 41.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$29.44	56% 3884-3060 (6944)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$31.3	53% 1793-1578 (3371)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 57¢	$659.99	$665.78	+$5.79	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 43¢	$551.69	$545.28	-$6.42	69% 1738-775 (2513)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 41¢	$471.5	$500.25	+$28.75	50% 722-711 (1433)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 42¢	$322.04	$325.87	+$3.83	18% 63-281 (344)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 57.7¢	$265.46	$264.49	-$0.97	48% 447-488 (935)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$47	$47.56	+$0.56	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$20.16	$20.4	+$0.24	35% 133-244 (377)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,392.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.44

Record

56%

3884-3060 (6944)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,210.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$31.3

Record

53%

1793-1578 (3371)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$659.99

Value

$665.78

PnL

+$5.79

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$551.69

Value

$545.28

PnL

-$6.42

Record

69%

1738-775 (2513)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$471.5

Value

$500.25

PnL

+$28.75

Record

50%

722-711 (1433)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$322.04

Value

$325.87

PnL

+$3.83

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$265.46

Value

$264.49

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

447-488 (935)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$47.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.16

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

35%

133-244 (377)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.