Patriots vs. Lions
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (100%) · Lions at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
3
Lions 100%
2 arb excluded
$7.3K
$59.8
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$42.73 | 4% 21-541 (562) |
GM gmpm2 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$14.92 | 55% 355-287 (642) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Patriotsavg 42.6¢ | $400.19 | $336.24 | -$7.4 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
| └ Patriots leg | Patriotsavg 42.6¢ | $247.44 | $241.11 | -$6.33 | |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 57.9¢ | $94.23 | $95.12 | -$1.07 | |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $218.36 | $218.49 | -$0.57 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 58¢ | $159.78 | $159.69 | -$0.09 | |
| └ Patriots leg | Patriotsavg 41.8¢ | $58.58 | $58.8 | -$0.48 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lionsavg 58.5¢ | $19.89 | $32.92 | +$2.15 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$4,956.86
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$42.73
Record
4%
21-541 (562)
Invested
$1,720.67
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$14.92
Record
55%
355-287 (642)
Invested
$400.19
Value
$336.24
PnL
-$7.4
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.36
Value
$218.49
PnL
-$0.57
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.89
Value
$32.92
PnL
+$2.15
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.