Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (54%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (57%) · Pacers at 47¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
7
Pacers 57%
$164.42
-$4.09
47.8¢ → 46.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Pacersavg 48¢ | $124.76 | $120.86 | -$3.9 | 50% 2835-2864 (5699) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | 76ersavg 53¢ | $19.18 | $18.46 | -$0.72 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 46¢ | $14.08 | $11.63 | +$0.23 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 47¢ | $7.05 | $7.2 | +$0.15 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | 76ersavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.62 | +$0.02 | 43% 851-1135 (1986) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | 76ersavg 53¢ | $2.26 | $2.28 | +$0.02 | 50% 2174-2194 (4368) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 44¢ | $1.26 | $1.37 | +$0.11 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
Invested
$124.76
Value
$120.86
PnL
-$3.9
Record
50%
2835-2864 (5699)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$18.46
PnL
-$0.72
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$14.08
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.62
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
851-1135 (1986)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
2174-2194 (4368)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.11
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.