Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 46.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 55¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$110.14

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares20,664

Combined PnL+$200.37

Over8 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares19,419

Combined PnL-$90.22

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53.6¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	+$188.12	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$88.85	48% 3952-4304 (8256)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	+$15.21	53% 1889-1647 (3536)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.29	26% 249-694 (943)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$27.41	45% 74-89 (163)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$400	$412	+$12	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 46¢	$347.3	$343.53	-$3.77	69% 1738-776 (2514)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$328.96	$330.05	+$1.1	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$266.03	$266.69	+$0.66	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$51.52	$52.08	+$0.56	56% 665-529 (1194)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 53¢	$26.06	$26.31	+$0.25	48% 471-508 (979)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$10,610.98

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$188.12

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$4,514.62

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$88.85

Record

48%

3952-4304 (8256)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,619.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.21

Record

53%

1889-1647 (3536)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,130.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.29

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,124.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.41

Record

45%

74-89 (163)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$412

PnL

+$12

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$347.3

Value

$343.53

PnL

-$3.77

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$328.96

Value

$330.05

PnL

+$1.1

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$266.03

Value

$266.69

PnL

+$0.66

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.52

Value

$52.08

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

665-529 (1194)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$26.06

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.