Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Celtics (52%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-13.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (78%) · Mavericks at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Celtics52¢Mavericks48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 78%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$1.25

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics52%

Mavericks49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,900

Combined PnL-$29.72

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,885

Combined PnL+$30.97

Celtics — 22%Mavericks — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Celticsavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$29.18	2% 6-389 (395)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$24.68	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$527.47	$532.97	+$5.49	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 47¢	$156.04	$156.04	+$0	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 46¢	$79.46	$81.19	+$1.73	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$65.49	$64.19	-$1.31	61% 1081-678 (1759)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 47¢	$63.35	$63.35	+$0	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$35.31	$35.68	+$0.37	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
SU suntori<$100	Celticsavg 53¢	$19.04	$18.5	-$0.54	46% 3204-3750 (6954)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Celtics

Invested

$3,049.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$29.18

Record

6-389 (395)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$2,369.54

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.68

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$527.47

Value

$532.97

PnL

+$5.49

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$156.04

Value

$156.04

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$79.46

Value

$81.19

PnL

+$1.73

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$65.49

Value

$64.19

PnL

-$1.31

Record

61%

1081-678 (1759)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$63.35

Value

$63.35

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$35.31

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

suntori<$100

Celtics

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$0.54

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.