Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (86%) · Suns at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
7
Suns 86%
2 arb excluded
$3.7K
$11.05
50.3¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Sunsavg 50.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$3.69 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Sunsavg 50.7¢ | $796.72 | $808.56 | +$11.84 | 50% 2840-2873 (5713) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Sunsavg 50¢ | $346.5 | $350 | +$3.5 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 49¢ | $171.5 | $176.75 | +$5.25 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 50¢ | $175 | $173.25 | -$1.75 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Sunsavg 50¢ | $346.5 | $350 | +$3.5 | 42% 548-747 (1295) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 49¢ | $171.5 | $176.75 | +$5.25 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 50¢ | $175 | $173.25 | -$1.75 | |
FL Flaznorp | Sunsavg 50¢ | $206.58 | $204.51 | -$2.07 | 49% 4635-4903 (9538) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 48¢ | $39.79 | $39.79 | -$0 | 47% 1186-1362 (2548) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Sunsavg 50¢ | $20.66 | $20.45 | -$0.21 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
 VeryLucky888 | Sunsavg 49¢ | $245 | $14.12 | +$5.22 | 53% 1889-1647 (3536) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Sunsavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.5 | -$0.05 | 41% 1174-1671 (2845) |
Invested
$1,890.48
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$3.69
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$796.72
Value
$808.56
PnL
+$11.84
Record
50%
2840-2873 (5713)
Invested
$346.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$3.5
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Both legs:
Invested
$346.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$3.5
Record
42%
548-747 (1295)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.58
Value
$204.51
PnL
-$2.07
Record
49%
4635-4903 (9538)
Invested
$39.79
Value
$39.79
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1186-1362 (2548)
Invested
$20.66
Value
$20.45
PnL
-$0.21
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
VeryLucky888Invested
$245
Value
$14.12
PnL
+$5.22
Record
53%
1889-1647 (3536)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
41%
1174-1671 (2845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.