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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | paperclip-maxxer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (361–305, n=666) | 54% (312–261, n=573) | 100% (3–0, n=3) |
| Consensus PnL | $444K | $425K | $90K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #6 | PM monthly #135 | PM monthly #369 |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (123 of 160 open) | 55% (50 of 91 open) | 50% (3 of 6 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47% | 65% of 504 at avg 53¢, ROI +5% | 100% of 4 at avg 70¢, ROI +39% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 14% (won 32% of 72) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 32% (won 100% of 62) | 24% (won 55% of 121) | 25% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 59% (won 100% of 115) | 44% (won 69% of 222) | 25% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 8% (won 100% of 15) | 18% (won 98% of 89) | 50% (won 100% of 2) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
23 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | paperclip-maxxer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $8.0K | Under $4 | — |
| Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $7.5K | Over $148 | — |
| Thunder vs. Clippers opposite sides · consensus Thunder | Clippers $3.5K | Thunder $3.2K | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | — | No $4.8K | Yes $1.5K |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Pacers | Knicks $4.1K | Pacers $21 | — |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers $2.2K | Kings $1.6K | — |
| Predators vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | Predators $3.4K | Golden Knights $79 | — |
| California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies opposite sides · consensus Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies $739 | California-San Diego Tritons $60 | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-6.5) same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $4.4K | Hawks $2.4K | — |
| Hawks vs. Bulls same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $3.4K | Hawks $3.0K | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) same side · consensus Knicks | Knicks $5.1K | Knicks $490 | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $4.0K | Over $1.3K | — |
| Spread: Heat (-2.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $1.2K | Cavaliers $2.6K | — |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) same side · consensus Thunder | Thunder $1.4K | Thunder $2.1K | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic same side · consensus Magic | Bucks $2.8K | Bucks $56 | — |
| Warriors vs. Spurs same side · consensus Spurs | Warriors $762 | Warriors $2.0K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) same side · consensus Pelicans | Grizzlies $2.5K | Grizzlies $200 | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) same side · consensus Kings | Kings $644 | Kings $2.0K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) same side · consensus Pelicans | Pelicans $2.1K | Pelicans $220 | — |
| Cavaliers vs. Heat same side · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $855 | Cavaliers $1.4K | — |
| Jazz vs. Rockets same side · consensus Rockets | Jazz $1.2K | Jazz $116 | — |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt same side · consensus Alabama | Alabama $42 | Alabama $1.2K | — |
| Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $408 | Over $597 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas same side · consensus South Carolina | South Carolina $267 | South Carolina $550 | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) same side · consensus Kings | Trail Blazers $3 | Trail Blazers $649 | — |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $433 | Over $31 | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-4.5) same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $380 | Hawks $54 | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-12.5) same side · consensus Warriors | Warriors $141 | Warriors $164 | — |
| Spread: Rockets (-16.5) same side · consensus Jazz | Jazz $180 | Jazz $29 | — |
| Houston vs. Colorado same side · consensus Colorado | Colorado $97 | Colorado $77 | — |
| West Florida Argonauts vs. Cleveland State Vikings same side · consensus West Florida Argonauts | West Florida Argonauts $4 | West Florida Argonauts $133 | — |