Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold West Florida Argonauts, while the market favors Cleveland State Vikings (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

West Florida Argonauts vs. Cleveland State Vikings

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold West Florida Argonauts (67%) · West Florida Argonauts at 44¢ · $788 held · ends Nov 13

West Florida Argonauts44¢Cleveland State Vikings56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

West Florida Argonauts

Consensus Traders

West Florida Argonauts 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$788.36

Combined PnL

$14.87

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 43.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWest Florida Argonauts at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Florida Argonauts

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cleveland State Vikings 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

West Florida Argonauts44%

Cleveland State Vikings56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Florida Argonauts4 traders

Total Value$414.53

Total Shares976

Combined PnL+$17.99

Cleveland State Vikings2 traders

Total Value$173.82

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$3.13

West Florida Argonauts — 67%Cleveland State Vikings — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on West Florida Argonauts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWest Florida Argonauts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCleveland State Vikings 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000West Florida Argonauts 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	West Florida Argonautsavg 40¢	$260	$273	+$13	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Cleveland State Vikings leg	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 50¢	$100	$116	+$16
└ West Florida Argonauts leg	West Florida Argonautsavg 50¢	$100	$84	-$16
SN SnakeBall	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 58¢	$174	$171	-$3	48% 677-745 (1422)
nigiri99CTR	West Florida Argonautsavg 42¢	$128.1	$132.68	+$4.58	52% 471-427 (898)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	West Florida Argonautsavg 40¢	$4.34	$4.56	+$0.22	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	West Florida Argonautsavg 41¢	$4.1	$4.3	+$0.2	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cleveland State Vikingsavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.82	-$0.13	40% 584-893 (1477)

cigarettesCTR

West Florida Argonauts

Invested

$260

Value

$273

PnL

+$13

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Cleveland State Vikings$10050¢+$16

West Florida Argonauts$10050¢-$16

SnakeBall

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$174

Value

$171

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

nigiri99CTR

West Florida Argonauts

Invested

$128.1

Value

$132.68

PnL

+$4.58

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

West Florida Argonauts

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

West Florida Argonauts

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cleveland State Vikings

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.13

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidWest Florida Argonauts at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

West Florida Argonauts

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cleveland State Vikings 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on West Florida Argonauts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWest Florida Argonauts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCleveland State Vikings 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000West Florida Argonauts 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Florida Argonauts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.