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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpomnibus-076daaprimm
Record (consensus markets)58% (4522–3297, n=7819)52% (6524–6030, n=12554)50% (15513–15596, n=31109)50% (1106–1118, n=2224)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$3.5M$3.1M$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #68PM monthly #23PM monthly #60PM monthly #46
Sides with the consensus71% (12 of 17 open)69% (179 of 259 open)53% (83 of 157 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134Other Sports −13 pts, n=22——
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%92% of 11270 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)29% (won 11% of 465)8% (won 60% of 874)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)16% (won 40% of 255)21% (won 87% of 2384)41% (won 99% of 412)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)16% (won 62% of 260)38% (won 95% of 4296)50% (won 99% of 503)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)39% (won 94% of 637)33% (won 99% of 3716)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

28 on the same side, 34 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpomnibus-076daaprimm
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $44KNo $44KYes $9—
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus KKS Lech Poznań
KKS Lech Poznań $60KSport Lisboa e Benfica $16KSport Lisboa e Benfica $1.6K—
Bratislava 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Kimmer Coppejans
opposite sides · consensus Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Kimmer Coppejans $81Nicolai Budkov Kjaer $2.0KNicolai Budkov Kjaer $25—
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200KYes $28KYes $36—
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
No $93KNo $47KNo $378—
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $128K—No $105—
K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $13K—Under $2.9K—
AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $10KOver $434—
Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus PFK CSKA Sofia
—PFK CSKA Sofia $1.2KPanathinaikós AO $5.7K—
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $6.7KYes $11—
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $2.0KUnder $2.5K—
FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $1.4KUnder $2.3K—
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $3.4KYes $34—
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $2.3KYes $370—
Charlottesville: Daniel Milavsky vs Max Hans Rehberg
opposite sides · consensus Max Hans Rehberg
—Daniel Milavsky $1.8KMax Hans Rehberg $73—
Will Umraniyespor win on 2026-10-14?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $1.6KYes $16—
M25 Harlingen, TX: Noah Zamora vs Aidan Mchugh
opposite sides · consensus Aidan Mchugh
—Aidan Mchugh $1.4KNoah Zamora $16—
W50 Huamantla: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Valeriya Strakhova
opposite sides · consensus Valeriya Strakhova
—Valeriya Strakhova $975Anastasia Tikhonova $51—
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-08?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $586Yes $358—
FC Lugano vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris: FC Lugano O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $779Over $72—
Elche CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $296Under $446—
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $653Yes $74—
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $519Under $206—
FC Twente vs. Páfos FC: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $686No $4—
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $615Under $3—
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-11-07?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $288Yes $156—
Will FC Porto win on 2026-11-08?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $290Yes $3—
CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $261Over $30—
M25 Valencia: Julio Cesar Porras vs Ivan Gakhov
opposite sides · consensus Ivan Gakhov
—Julio Cesar Porras $60Ivan Gakhov $204—
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $182Over $49—
CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $132Yes $36—
Energetik Mingechevir vs. Shahdag Qusar FK: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $120Yes $2—
Will Rīga FC win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $23No $50—
SC União Torreense vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $46Over $26—
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group B
opposite sides · consensus maybe
—maybe $52KUUSAMO.gg $16—
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs
opposite sides · consensus FURIA
—FURIA $5BetBoom Team $28—
Magic vs. Suns
same side · consensus Magic
Magic $133K—Magic $260—
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $52K—Yes $2.4K—
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
same side · consensus Bilibili Gaming
Dplus KIA $17K—Dplus KIA $11K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $13KUnder $1.6K—
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
—No $7.2KNo $27—
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $5.1KNo $177—
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
same side · consensus Olympique de Marseille
—Olympique de Marseille $4.6KOlympique de Marseille $35—
Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Filip Misolic
same side · consensus Filip Misolic
—Filip Misolic $4.3KFilip Misolic $249—
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?
same side · consensus No
—No $4.1KNo $105—
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $2.4KUnder $111—
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.9KNo $25—
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. OFI: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $1.5KOver $12—
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-11-06?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.1KNo $8—
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $856Yes $131—