Will Umraniyespor win on 2026-10-14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$177.07

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 82¢

+42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,406

Combined PnL+$600.13

Yes6 traders

Total Value$399.21

Total Shares1,836

Combined PnL-$423.06

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

483h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 63.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$172.64	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 50.2¢	$794.2	$1.2K	+$431.3	58% 49549-35643 (85192)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$632.2	$298.07	-$332.81	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$83.68	$71.55	-$11.94	53% 59009-51318 (110327)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.6¢	$20.89	$40.22	+$19.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.2¢	$62.79	$31.33	-$31.19
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$66.44	$64.91	-$43.55	47% 10547-11790 (22337)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 67.4¢	$39.18	$35.44	-$3.81	54% 6729-5653 (12382)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$35.52	$17.38	-$17.76	47% 9999-11330 (21329)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 65.8¢	$36.19	$9.93	-$26.18	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$6.97	$5.72	-$1.22	51% 6217-5958 (12175)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.78	$3.2	-$1.55	49% 14105-14667 (28772)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,486.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$172.64

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$794.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$431.3

Record

58%

49549-35643 (85192)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$632.2

Value

$298.07

PnL

-$332.81

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.68

Value

$71.55

PnL

-$11.94

Record

53%

59009-51318 (110327)

Both legs:

No$20.8942.6¢+$19.26

Yes$62.7936.2¢-$31.19

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$66.44

Value

$64.91

PnL

-$43.55

Record

47%

10547-11790 (22337)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$39.18

Value

$35.44

PnL

-$3.81

Record

54%

6729-5653 (12382)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.52

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$17.76

Record

47%

9999-11330 (21329)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.19

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$26.18

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$1.22

Record

51%

6217-5958 (12175)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$1.55

Record

49%

14105-14667 (28772)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

483h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.