Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 52¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$17.6K
-$118.14
53.3¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $23.2K | $12.2K | -$179.14 | 64% 1955-1087 (3042) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$58.77 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $368.49 | $175.03 | +$1.84 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $34.92 | $34.91 | -$0.01 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.1¢ | $9.38 | $9.66 | +$0.28 | 53% 16647-14800 (31447) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.96 | $3.78 | +$0.12 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
Invested
$23,198.84
Value
$12.2K
PnL
-$179.14
Record
64%
1955-1087 (3042)
Invested
$5,095.19
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$58.77
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$368.49
Value
$175.03
PnL
+$1.84
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$34.92
Value
$34.91
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$9.66
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
16647-14800 (31447)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.12
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.