FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$4.1K
-$48.47
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 53.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$12.06 | 50% 20843-21072 (41915) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 47.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$25.62 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $362.97 | $350.08 | -$10.4 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $86.48 | $86.48 | +$0 | 50% 36455-35915 (72370) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.7 | $9.31 | -$0.4 | 73% 2438-885 (3323) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.35 | +$0 | 52% 8633-7856 (16489) |
Invested
$2,243.45
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$12.06
Record
50%
20843-21072 (41915)
Invested
$1,492.59
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$25.62
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$362.97
Value
$350.08
PnL
-$10.4
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Invested
$86.48
Value
$86.48
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
36455-35915 (72370)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.31
PnL
-$0.4
Record
73%
2438-885 (3323)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
8633-7856 (16489)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.