LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (33%) · Bilibili Gaming at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Bilibili Gaming
6
Bilibili Gaming 33%
$7.5K
$246.6
55.9¢ → 58.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBilibili Gaming at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Bilibili Gamingavg 55.7¢ | $4.8K | $5.0K | +$241.73 | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | Dplus KIAavg 41.8¢ | $951.33 | $910.79 | -$29.15 | 54% 1253-1088 (2341) |
 KateBollinger | Bilibili Gamingavg 57¢ | $796.62 | $796.62 | +$20.96 | 68% 1753-815 (2568) |
MP mpyhCTR | Dplus KIAavg 39.9¢ | $757.98 | $759.98 | +$11.5 | 69% 1157-524 (1681) |
AR arbmonitorCTR<$100 | Dplus KIAavg 38.1¢ | $19.03 | $19.97 | +$1.19 | 44% 570-737 (1307) |
HU humbleboyCTR<$100 | Dplus KIAavg 40¢ | $9.74 | $10.11 | +$0.37 | 55% 515-428 (943) |
Invested
$4,847.14
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$241.73
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
Invested
$951.33
Value
$910.79
PnL
-$29.15
Record
54%
1253-1088 (2341)
KateBollingerInvested
$796.62
Value
$796.62
PnL
+$20.96
Record
68%
1753-815 (2568)
Invested
$757.98
Value
$759.98
PnL
+$11.5
Record
69%
1157-524 (1681)
Invested
$19.03
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$1.19
Record
44%
570-737 (1307)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
515-428 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.