Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-05?

1 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 45¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 5

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

-$231.07

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares22,239

Combined PnL-$378.84

No13 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,656

Combined PnL+$147.77

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$10.3K	$9.9K	-$378.84	54% 87-73 (160)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 55¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$27.99	49% 14333-15011 (29344)
CA Cannae	Noavg 55.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$15.32	53% 16519-14663 (31182)
GC GC-P	Noavg 54.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$27.08	39% 1347-2116 (3463)
NM NM-P	Noavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.46	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.64	51% 24276-22998 (47274)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$5.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.6¢	$280.93	$286.92	+$5.99
VeryLucky888	Noavg 55.4¢	$1.6K	$555	+$65	58% 45483-32930 (78413)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55¢	$281.11	$283.67	+$2.56	50% 27780-27645 (55425)
LI Limousin	Noavg 56.2¢	$112.48	$111	-$1.47	54% 1204-1042 (2246)
SE sentrio	Noavg 55¢	$106.96	$107.94	+$0.97	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$23.73	$22.89	-$0.84	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$22.89	$22.2	-$0.69	51% 1104-1058 (2162)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 54¢	$12	$12.33	+$0.33	55% 1314-1091 (2405)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.33	$5.37	+$0.04	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.89	$2.91	+$0.03	48% 7285-7769 (15054)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,275.14

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$378.84

Record

54%

87-73 (160)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,078.89

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$27.99

Record

49%

14333-15011 (29344)

Cannae

Invested

$2,348.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$15.32

Record

53%

16519-14663 (31182)

GC-P

Invested

$1,515.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$27.08

Record

39%

1347-2116 (3463)

NM-P

Invested

$1,389.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.46

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,322.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.64

Record

51%

24276-22998 (47274)

Both legs:

No$1,041.7255.8¢-$5.35

Yes$280.9343.6¢+$5.99

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,585

Value

$555

PnL

+$65

Record

58%

45483-32930 (78413)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$281.11

Value

$283.67

PnL

+$2.56

Record

50%

27780-27645 (55425)

Limousin

Invested

$112.48

Value

$111

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

1204-1042 (2246)

sentrio

Invested

$106.96

Value

$107.94

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$22.89

PnL

-$0.84

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$22.89

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$0.69

Record

51%

1104-1058 (2162)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$0.33

Record

55%

1314-1091 (2405)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

7285-7769 (15054)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.