Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 40¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$547.93
-$163.28
55.3¢ → 40¢
-28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 55.8¢ | $577.17 | $413.46 | -$163.71 | 51% 25760-24462 (50222) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $54.18 | $52.98 | -$1.2 | 51% 37671-36895 (74566) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $40.59 | $31.49 | -$9.09 | 48% 61189-65989 (127178) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $14.8 | $23.6 | +$8.8 | 49% 14711-15381 (30092) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 40.2¢ | $16.08 | $15.6 | +$0.8 | 51% 1384-1348 (2732) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.2¢ | $7.69 | $8.85 | +$1.16 | 52% 1380-1295 (2675) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 51.3¢ | $1.99 | $1.94 | -$0.05 | 50% 21182-21443 (42625) |
Invested
$577.17
Value
$413.46
PnL
-$163.71
Record
51%
25760-24462 (50222)
Invested
$54.18
Value
$52.98
PnL
-$1.2
Record
51%
37671-36895 (74566)
Invested
$40.59
Value
$31.49
PnL
-$9.09
Record
48%
61189-65989 (127178)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$23.6
PnL
+$8.8
Record
49%
14711-15381 (30092)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
1384-1348 (2732)
Invested
$7.69
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$1.16
Record
52%
1380-1295 (2675)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
21182-21443 (42625)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.