Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-05?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 88¢ · $472 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$471.54
-$0.33
84.2¢ → 87.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 83¢ | $272.23 | $286.99 | +$14.76 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 87¢ | $140 | $122.5 | +$0.7 | 51% 1359-1321 (2680) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $56.1 | $41.25 | -$14.85 | 17% 93-457 (550) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $54.38 | $10 | -$0.23 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $10.29 | $9.48 | -$0.81 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.95 | $1.03 | +$0.08 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.27 | $0.28 | +$0.01 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
Invested
$272.23
Value
$286.99
PnL
+$14.76
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$140
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$0.7
Record
51%
1359-1321 (2680)
Invested
$56.1
Value
$41.25
PnL
-$14.85
Record
17%
93-457 (550)
Invested
$54.38
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$10.29
Value
$9.48
PnL
-$0.81
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.01
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.