CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 53¢ · $372 held · ended Nov 3

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$371.8

Combined PnL

$12.69

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$140.34

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$13.52

No3 traders

Total Value$60.27

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$0.83

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$201.93	$171.19	-$30.74	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.2¢	$169.39	$125.23	-$44.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$32.54	$45.95	+$13.41
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$71.52	$99.8	+$0.76	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$25.58	$37.91	+$12.33	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$32.81	$31.64	-$1.17	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$21.65	$27.88	+$0.63	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.63	+$0.42	58% 50268-36310 (86578)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.04	$0.76	-$0.28	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$201.93

Value

$171.19

PnL

-$30.74

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

No$169.3964.2¢-$44.16

Yes$32.5437.2¢+$13.41

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.52

Value

$99.8

PnL

+$0.76

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.58

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$12.33

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$32.81

Value

$31.64

PnL

-$1.17

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

50268-36310 (86578)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.