Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-05?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $899 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$899.1
$17.05
57.3¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 56.5¢ | $627.25 | $366.94 | +$12.36 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 58¢ | $243.65 | $243.65 | +$0 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 58¢ | $217.94 | $219.82 | +$1.88 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $202.89 | $43.55 | +$1.74 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $24.07 | $25.14 | +$1.07 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
Invested
$627.25
Value
$366.94
PnL
+$12.36
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$243.65
Value
$243.65
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$217.94
Value
$219.82
PnL
+$1.88
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$202.89
Value
$43.55
PnL
+$1.74
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$24.07
Value
$25.14
PnL
+$1.07
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.