Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$2.37

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 64.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$938.75

Total Shares1,467

Combined PnL-$25.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$353.28

Total Shares995

Combined PnL+$23.26

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 65.7¢	$545.43	$531	-$14.42	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$346.11	$353.28	+$23.26	50% 21484-21745 (43229)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 66¢	$272.15	$264.01	-$8.14	50% 38117-37372 (75489)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$83.36	$80.2	-$2.53	50% 26276-25912 (52188)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$28.54	$28.6	+$0.05	64% 10122-5677 (15799)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 64¢	$25.54	$25.54	+$0	64% 10147-5745 (15892)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 68¢	$9.99	$9.4	-$0.59	53% 2663-2346 (5009)

Flaznorp

Invested

$545.43

Value

$531

PnL

-$14.42

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.11

Value

$353.28

PnL

+$23.26

Record

50%

21484-21745 (43229)

SnakeBall

Invested

$272.15

Value

$264.01

PnL

-$8.14

Record

50%

38117-37372 (75489)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$83.36

Value

$80.2

PnL

-$2.53

Record

50%

26276-25912 (52188)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$28.54

Value

$28.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

10122-5677 (15799)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$25.54

Value

$25.54

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10147-5745 (15892)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.59

Record

53%

2663-2346 (5009)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.