Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

22 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 94¢ · $82K held · ends Nov 5

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$82.4K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 94.2¢

+19% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 30 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$79.4K

Total Shares83,776

Combined PnL+$15.6K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares30,039

Combined PnL$-10.2K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 28

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Noavg 89.6¢	$23.2K	$23.6K	+$1.4K	58% 83-61 (144)
morito181	Noavg 89.6¢	$16.0K	$16.9K	+$1.0K	61% 849-552 (1401)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 77.1¢	$13.4K	$13.1K	+$2.4K	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
DI dips.	Noavg 89.5¢	$7.1K	$7.5K	+$537.45	47% 10232-11605 (21837)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 9.8¢	$838.56	$4.5K	+$5.8K	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 69.3¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	+$949.12	43% 3106-4153 (7259)
HR HRAImail-.-	Noavg 32.9¢	$983.86	$2.8K	+$1.8K	— 13-3 (16)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.5¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	+$173.15	60% 911-595 (1506)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 73.4¢	$3.4K	$2.4K	$-1.3K	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$269.2	53% 172-153 (325)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 53.6¢	$707.56	$762.94	+$55.38	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 80.1¢	$732.59	$517.82	+$90.66	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$5.1K	$370.4	$-4.7K	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 64.7¢	$813.93	$325.47	+$85.18	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 85.4¢	$580.11	$319.4	+$19.98	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 81.6¢	$653.79	$304.41	+$29.64	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 17.7¢	$243.73	$255.85	+$604.23	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 63.6¢	$896.29	$237.42	+$78.48	41% 1149-1645 (2794)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 70.2¢	$674	$236.82	+$50.58	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 57.3¢	$364.88	$150	+$59	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$1.4K	$64.83	-$985.38	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 66.9¢	$2.4K	$62.26	$-1.7K	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
ME merod	Noavg 94.9¢	$263.88	$62.09	-$0.05	42% 2956-4064 (7020)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 71.6¢	$207.22	$52.55	+$6.46	52% 6168-5710 (11878)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$40.4	$42.02	+$2.69	39% 5418-8450 (13868)

shineforever

Invested

$23,243.24

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

morito181

Invested

$15,968.47

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

61%

849-552 (1401)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$13,403.84

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

dips.

Invested

$7,065.31

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$537.45

Record

47%

10232-11605 (21837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$838.56

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,552.15

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$949.12

Record

43%

3106-4153 (7259)

HRAImail-.-

Invested

$983.86

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$2,993.25

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$173.15

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,402.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

roscoff

Invested

$1,341.8

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$269.2

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

cigarettes

Invested

$707.56

Value

$762.94

PnL

+$55.38

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$732.59

Value

$517.82

PnL

+$90.66

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,066.86

Value

$370.4

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$813.93

Value

$325.47

PnL

+$85.18

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$580.11

Value

$319.4

PnL

+$19.98

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$653.79

Value

$304.41

PnL

+$29.64

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$243.73

Value

$255.85

PnL

+$604.23

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$896.29

Value

$237.42

PnL

+$78.48

Record

41%

1149-1645 (2794)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$674

Value

$236.82

PnL

+$50.58

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$364.88

Value

$150

PnL

+$59

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,402.01

Value

$64.83

PnL

-$985.38

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,416.41

Value

$62.26

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

merod

Invested

$263.88

Value

$62.09

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

2956-4064 (7020)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$207.22

Value

$52.55

PnL

+$6.46

Record

52%

6168-5710 (11878)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$40.4

Value

$42.02

PnL

+$2.69

Record

39%

5418-8450 (13868)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 30 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 28

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.