Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.52

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$313.38

Total Shares340

Combined PnL+$2.65

No6 traders

Total Value$333.48

Total Shares2,174

Combined PnL-$16.17

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 15¢	$411.09	$421.85	+$10.76	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ No leg	Noavg 15¢	$218.06	$225.33	+$7.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83¢	$193.03	$196.52	+$3.49
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$280.09	$288.33	+$8.24	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83¢	$167.41	$170.44	+$3.03
└ No leg	Noavg 14.8¢	$112.68	$117.9	+$5.22
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 84¢	$250.96	$253.16	+$2.19	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 15¢	$186.15	$192.36	+$6.2	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 15¢	$85.71	$88.02	+$2.31	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
└ No leg	Noavg 15¢	$65.74	$67.93	+$2.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84¢	$19.97	$20.09	+$0.12
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 15.9¢	$125.51	$77.5	-$1.39	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$58.59	$58.94	+$0.35	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$69.3	$47.98	-$21.32	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$9.56	$9.87	+$0.32	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$3	$3.1	+$0.1	52% 8584-7828 (16412)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$2.76	$2.67	-$0.09	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$1.17	$1.28	+$0.11	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$411.09

Value

$421.85

PnL

+$10.76

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Invested

$280.09

Value

$288.33

PnL

+$8.24

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Invested

$250.96

Value

$253.16

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$186.15

Value

$192.36

PnL

+$6.2

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$85.71

Value

$88.02

PnL

+$2.31

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

Both legs:

No$65.7415¢+$2.19

Yes$19.9784¢+$0.12

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$125.51

Value

$77.5

PnL

-$1.39

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.59

Value

$58.94

PnL

+$0.35

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$69.3

Value

$47.98

PnL

-$21.32

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.