Will EC Juventude win on 2026-11-06?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.3K
-$8.68
51.2¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 51.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $75.75 | $73.94 | -$5.07 | 48% 7398-7926 (15324) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $33.32 | $32.98 | -$0.34 | 64% 9962-5592 (15554) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $25.48 | $25.14 | -$0.34 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $17.22 | $17.22 | +$0 | 50% 25801-25492 (51293) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $7.88 | $7.69 | +$0.08 | 50% 21147-21407 (42554) |
Invested
$1,096.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$75.75
Value
$73.94
PnL
-$5.07
Record
48%
7398-7926 (15324)
Invested
$33.32
Value
$32.98
PnL
-$0.34
Record
64%
9962-5592 (15554)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$25.14
PnL
-$0.34
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$17.22
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25801-25492 (51293)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
21147-21407 (42554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.