Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 0.1¢ · $76K held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$75.9K

Combined PnL

$12.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$33.5K

Total Shares63,210

Combined PnL-$867.16

Yes14 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares57,604

Combined PnL+$13.5K

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 53.8¢	$32.8K	$32.3K	-$504.38	48% 205-222 (427)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 46.9¢	$7.8K	$14.9K	+$7.2K	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 47.4¢	$3.8K	$7.4K	+$3.6K	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
RN1	Yesavg 47.1¢	$3.3K	$6.0K	+$2.7K	53% 62075-54349 (116424)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 47.6¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$67.07	49% 1740-1836 (3576)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 47.7¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$42.33	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 48.2¢	$1.1K	$2.3K	+$1.2K	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 46.5¢	$555.43	$1.0K	-$8.88	50% 38141-37389 (75530)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 47¢	$1.5K	$711.98	-$836.65	49% 14959-15843 (30802)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 55.2¢	$1.0K	$556.76	-$472.83	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 47.4¢	$545.38	$540.78	-$4.6	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 47.4¢	$545.36	$540.76	-$4.6	64% 10152-5754 (15906)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 50¢	$355.3	$471.2	+$115.9	50% 2762-2741 (5503)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 47.2¢	$360.95	$160.66	-$200.29	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 78.9¢	$160.52	$97.66	-$62.86	62% 1916-1163 (3079)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$88.53	$87.92	-$0.61	50% 8396-8445 (16841)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$41.91	$41.03	-$1.27	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$26.69	$26.36	-$0.33	46% 1717-2011 (3728)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$33.87	$13.8	-$0.34	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$12.54	$13.11	+$0.57	48% 5515-6030 (11545)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$10	$10	+$0.28	53% 2667-2350 (5017)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$4.84	$0.01	-$4.83	47% 9482-10610 (20092)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$32,795.83

Value

$32.3K

PnL

-$504.38

Record

48%

205-222 (427)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$7,760.3

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,838.99

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,269.8

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

53%

62075-54349 (116424)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$5,680.71

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$67.07

Record

49%

1740-1836 (3576)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$2,976.04

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$42.33

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$1,139.47

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$555.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$8.88

Record

50%

38141-37389 (75530)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$1,548.63

Value

$711.98

PnL

-$836.65

Record

49%

14959-15843 (30802)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$1,029.59

Value

$556.76

PnL

-$472.83

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$545.38

Value

$540.78

PnL

-$4.6

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$545.36

Value

$540.76

PnL

-$4.6

Record

64%

10152-5754 (15906)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$355.3

Value

$471.2

PnL

+$115.9

Record

50%

2762-2741 (5503)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$360.95

Value

$160.66

PnL

-$200.29

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$160.52

Value

$97.66

PnL

-$62.86

Record

62%

1916-1163 (3079)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$88.53

Value

$87.92

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

8396-8445 (16841)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$41.91

Value

$41.03

PnL

-$1.27

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.69

Value

$26.36

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

1717-2011 (3728)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.87

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$12.54

Value

$13.11

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

5515-6030 (11545)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

2667-2350 (5017)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.83

Record

47%

9482-10610 (20092)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.