Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$6.2K
$0.44
49.3¢ → 49¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 51.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$20.91 | 50% 21367-21638 (43005) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 49.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$20.29 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
SE sentrioCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $108.38 | $108.38 | +$0 | 50% 26097-25756 (51853) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $17.49 | $17.14 | -$0.17 | 58% 21404-15543 (36947) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $6.13 | $6.13 | +$0 | 53% 2617-2311 (4928) |
Invested
$2,595.92
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$20.91
Record
50%
21367-21638 (43005)
Invested
$2,045.07
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$20.29
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,470
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Invested
$108.38
Value
$108.38
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26097-25756 (51853)
Invested
$17.49
Value
$17.14
PnL
-$0.17
Record
58%
21404-15543 (36947)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$6.13
Value
$6.13
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2617-2311 (4928)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.