Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 52¢ · $663 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$663.45
$2.66
51.8¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 52.1¢ | $467.97 | $466.97 | -$1 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $153 | $156 | +$3 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $19.32 | $19.7 | +$0.57 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.69 | $10.59 | -$0.1 | 50% 25480-25186 (50666) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $10 | $10.19 | +$0.2 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
Invested
$467.97
Value
$466.97
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
VeryLucky888Invested
$153
Value
$156
PnL
+$3
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$19.32
Value
$19.7
PnL
+$0.57
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$10.69
Value
$10.59
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
25480-25186 (50666)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$0.2
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.