CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 75¢ · $413 held · ended Nov 3

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$413.09

Combined PnL

-$29.75

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 75¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$341.14

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$7.87

Over5 traders

Total Value$71.95

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$21.88

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 67.3¢	$131.42	$339.58	-$8.08	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 40.6¢	$39.2	$24.91	-$14.28	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$20.9	$24.2	+$3.3	53% 1098-984 (2082)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$29.28	$19.23	-$10.05	42% 273-380 (653)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	52% 1107-1025 (2132)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 61¢	$1.23	$1.57	+$0.21	51% 7458-7190 (14648)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2.24	$1.4	-$0.84	51% 11725-11123 (22848)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$131.42

Value

$339.58

PnL

-$8.08

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.2

Value

$24.91

PnL

-$14.28

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.9

Value

$24.2

PnL

+$3.3

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

SharkbettingComCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.28

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$10.05

Record

42%

273-380 (653)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1107-1025 (2132)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.24

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

11725-11123 (22848)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.