RC Celta de Vigo vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$20.62

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,900

Combined PnL+$41.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$625.28

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL-$21.06

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$36.96	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$566.35	$546.25	-$20.1	46% 8590-10239 (18829)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 49¢	$93.63	$97.45	+$3.82	51% 37655-36884 (74539)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$44.74	$44.74	+$0	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 51.3¢	$27.68	$27.54	-$0.14	52% 1362-1281 (2643)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$22.35	$21.47	-$0.88	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 47¢	$14.49	$15.29	+$0.8	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7.76	$7.47	-$0.07	53% 2569-2244 (4813)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$6.65	$6.88	+$0.24	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$5.35	$5.35	-$0	64% 9962-5592 (15554)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,339.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$36.96

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$566.35

Value

$546.25

PnL

-$20.1

Record

46%

8590-10239 (18829)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$93.63

Value

$97.45

PnL

+$3.82

Record

51%

37655-36884 (74539)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.74

Value

$44.74

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$27.68

Value

$27.54

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

1362-1281 (2643)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.35

Value

$21.47

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$14.49

Value

$15.29

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

2569-2244 (4813)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$6.65

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.