Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 99.4¢

+34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$25.6K

Total Shares25,815

Combined PnL+$7.5K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$206.11

Total Shares22,936

Combined PnL$-5.8K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$12.0K	$14.9K	+$2.9K	50% 175-172 (347)
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$15.55	— 6-0 (6)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 4.6¢	$252.69	$2.8K	+$4.0K	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 93.5¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$130.94	61% 961-606 (1567)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 28.9¢	$189.4	$647.21	+$461.1	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 63.5¢	$319.77	$365.56	+$45.79	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 25.6¢	$175.53	$191.19	+$15.66	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$4.3K	$165.9	$-4.0K	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.7¢	$758.43	$20.27	-$726.11	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 55.9¢	$910.93	$14.67	-$896.25	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$181.01	$5.27	-$175.74	62% 782-473 (1255)

roscoff

Invested

$12,000

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

175-172 (347)

bot-rapin

Invested

$4,443.95

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$15.55

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$252.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$2,184.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$130.94

Record

61%

961-606 (1567)

Flaznorp

Invested

$189.4

Value

$647.21

PnL

+$461.1

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

cigarettes

Invested

$319.77

Value

$365.56

PnL

+$45.79

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$175.53

Value

$191.19

PnL

+$15.66

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,280.37

Value

$165.9

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$758.43

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$726.11

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$910.93

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$896.25

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$175.74

Record

62%

782-473 (1255)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.