Will FC Porto win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$3.3K
-$267.8
65¢ → 59.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO notgoodluck | Yesavg 65¢ | $3.2K | $2.9K | -$270.91 | 62% 234-142 (376) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 40.9¢ | $296.96 | $290.12 | +$4.05 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 40.5¢ | $40.5 | $40 | -$0.5 | 48% 61037-65871 (126908) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $26.65 | $26 | +$0.33 | 51% 37665-36890 (74555) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $16.27 | $15.87 | -$0.4 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.7¢ | $10 | $9.83 | -$0.17 | 53% 2573-2253 (4826) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $3.97 | $3.8 | -$0.17 | 48% 7376-8077 (15453) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $3.01 | $2.97 | -$0.03 | 50% 21164-21421 (42585) |
Invested
$3,213.91
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$270.91
Record
62%
234-142 (376)
Invested
$296.96
Value
$290.12
PnL
+$4.05
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
61037-65871 (126908)
Invested
$26.65
Value
$26
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
37665-36890 (74555)
Invested
$16.27
Value
$15.87
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
2573-2253 (4826)
Invested
$3.97
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.17
Record
48%
7376-8077 (15453)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
21164-21421 (42585)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.