Consensus PnL $8.0M · win rate 58% (4535–3309, n=7844) · PM monthly #19 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.0M
Record
4535W / 3309L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 7844 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#821
Source
PM monthly #19
Record (90 d)
2585/4396 · 59%
Trades
5,940
Markets
11,541
Volume
$858.5M
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Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 21 on the consensus side (62%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $172K · now 77¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (63% of 129)
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?No $94K · now 63¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (71% of 8)
- Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?No $84K · now 74¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $53K · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (71% of 141)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (68% of 25)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $14K · now 75¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (48% of 34)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $13K · now 47¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
- CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5Over $11K · now 28¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
7,119 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 55¢- NBA
+9 pts
side won 75% of 459 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +5%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 62% of 2301 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +1%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 54% of 1407 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 49% of 136 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 11% of 1182)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 45% of 1743)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 66% of 2080)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 91% of 2114)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.