K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 52¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 5

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$91.62

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares27,883

Combined PnL+$96.3

Under2 traders

Total Value$52.76

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$4.68

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 51.2¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	+$63.35	53% 6257-5537 (11794)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 49.2¢	$479.14	$486.46	+$29.19	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
NM NM-P	Overavg 50¢	$177.48	$182.7	+$5.22	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
GC GC-P	Overavg 50¢	$175	$180.25	+$5.25	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50¢	$309.07	$154.5	-$11.2	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49.2¢	$138.03	$140.14	+$2.11	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
0xheavy888	Overavg 50¢	$100	$103	+$1	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 50¢	$33.5	$34.51	+$1.01	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$35.83	$32.97	-$2.86	58% 6721-4786 (11507)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$22.31	$19.79	-$1.82	50% 21156-21414 (42570)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10.03	$10.33	+$0.3	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.38	$1.44	+$0.07	49% 14704-15378 (30082)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$12,986.45

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$63.35

Record

53%

6257-5537 (11794)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$479.14

Value

$486.46

PnL

+$29.19

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$177.48

Value

$182.7

PnL

+$5.22

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$309.07

Value

$154.5

PnL

-$11.2

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$138.03

Value

$140.14

PnL

+$2.11

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$103

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$33.5

Value

$34.51

PnL

+$1.01

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.83

Value

$32.97

PnL

-$2.86

Record

58%

6721-4786 (11507)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.31

Value

$19.79

PnL

-$1.82

Record

50%

21156-21414 (42570)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.33

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

14704-15378 (30082)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.