Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Energetik Mingechevir vs. Shahdag Qusar FK: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 47¢ · $333 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$333.36
$2.35
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $332.49 | $210.55 | +$0.1 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.5¢ | $138.17 | $120.19 | -$17.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $72.27 | $90.36 | +$18.08 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $96.92 | $45.07 | +$7.89 | 49% 14598-15343 (29941) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $53.45 | $43.33 | -$10.12 | 51% 37347-36602 (73949) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $27.5 | $32.09 | +$4.59 | 53% 1379-1231 (2610) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $2.33 | $2.33 | +$0 | 50% 21060-21316 (42376) |
Invested
$332.49
Value
$210.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.92
Value
$45.07
PnL
+$7.89
Record
49%
14598-15343 (29941)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$43.33
PnL
-$10.12
Record
51%
37347-36602 (73949)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$32.09
PnL
+$4.59
Record
53%
1379-1231 (2610)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$2.33
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
21060-21316 (42376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.