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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
haveanedge.xyzHomeRunHazardnigiri99Zzzz87
Record (consensus markets)no settled market54% (448–384, n=832)55% (392–321, n=713)67% (85–41, n=126)
Consensus PnL$0$332K$426K$305K
Tracked asPM monthly #722PM monthly #9PM monthly #103was PM monthly #666
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position70% (81 of 115 open)44% (30 of 68 open)50% (5 of 10 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NHL +21 pts n=68, ROI +6%
  • NBA +14 pts n=284, ROI +13%
  • Soccer +18 pts n=63, ROI +28%
  • NBA +31 pts n=47, ROI +29%
  • Esports +42 pts n=13, ROI +43%
  • Soccer +26 pts n=20, ROI +23%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won—100% of 212 at avg 53¢, ROI +47%69% of 567 at avg 53¢, ROI +6%100% of 84 at avg 68¢, ROI +39%
Entries under 30¢—1% (won 100% of 2)14% (won 37% of 79)1% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢—32% (won 100% of 68)24% (won 59% of 138)15% (won 100% of 13)
Entries 50–70¢—60% (won 100% of 127)43% (won 72% of 243)37% (won 100% of 31)
Entries 70¢ and up—7% (won 100% of 15)19% (won 98% of 107)46% (won 100% of 39)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

16 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Markethaveanedge.xyzHomeRunHazardnigiri99Zzzz87
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers
opposite sides · consensus Cavaliers
—Cavaliers $2.4KMavericks $88Mavericks $5.9K
Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $4.4KUnder $1.1K—
Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 41.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $2.2KUnder $2.4K—
Spread: James Madison (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus UConn
—UConn $2.2KJames Madison $1.3K—
Spread: Alabama (-17.5)
opposite sides · consensus Vanderbilt
—Alabama $1.5KVanderbilt $983—
Spread: Indiana (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Indiana
—Indiana $2.5KUSC $2—
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
—Grizzlies $1.8KNets $13—
Spread: Auburn (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Auburn
—Mississippi State $392Auburn $370—
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
opposite sides · consensus Alabama
—Alabama $62Vanderbilt $13—
Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $12KOver $1.5K—
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)
same side · consensus Indiana
—Indiana $6.4KIndiana $911—
Spread: Kennesaw State (-7.5)
same side · consensus Sam Houston
—Kennesaw State $2.2KKennesaw State $1.3K—
Spread: Texans (-3.5)
same side · consensus Texans
—Browns $2.3KBrowns $1.1K—
Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 51.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $2.5KUnder $200—
Spread: Alabama (-16.5)
same side · consensus Vanderbilt
—Vanderbilt $2.1KVanderbilt $542—
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Titans
—Jaguars $1.1KJaguars $1.3K—
Sharks vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $1.7KUnder $5—
Pistons vs. Heat
same side · consensus Heat
—Heat $1.1KHeat $46—
Dolphins vs. Colts
same side · consensus Colts
—Colts $1.1KColts $3—
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 59.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $6Over $870—
South Carolina vs. Arkansas
same side · consensus South Carolina
—South Carolina $263South Carolina $542—
Spread: BYU (-7.5)
same side · consensus Baylor
—BYU $297BYU $355—
Nuggets vs. Pelicans
same side · consensus Nuggets
—Pelicans $459Pelicans $96—
Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)
same side · consensus Texas A&M
—Texas A&M $23Texas A&M $524—
Kraken vs. Hurricanes
same side · consensus Hurricanes
—Kraken $43Kraken $54—