Spread: BYU (-7.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Baylor (38%) · Baylor at 52¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Baylor
8
Baylor 38%
$25.4K
-$71.34
53¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBaylor at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Baylor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBird | Bayloravg 53¢ | $13.2K | $12.9K | -$375 | 63% 15-9 (24) |
 PainfulvoidCTR | BYUavg 47¢ | $9.1K | $9.3K | +$288.93 | 0% 0-253 (253) |
LI lightotunnel35 | Bayloravg 52.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$22.84 | 11% 7-55 (62) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | BYUavg 47¢ | $596.7 | $571 | +$12.7 | 52% 773-714 (1487) |
38 38791873984189CTR | BYUavg 47.4¢ | $493.55 | $504.73 | +$11.18 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | BYUavg 47¢ | $380.61 | $388.71 | +$8.1 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
IC ic4creamCTR | BYUavg 47¢ | $258.97 | $264.48 | +$5.51 | 4% 19-453 (472) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Bayloravg 53¢ | $13.54 | $10.08 | +$0.07 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
FeedTheBigBirdInvested
$13,249.85
Value
$12.9K
PnL
-$375
Record
63%
15-9 (24)
PainfulvoidCTRInvested
$9,053.3
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$288.93
Record
0%
0-253 (253)
Invested
$1,469.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$22.84
Record
11%
7-55 (62)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$596.7
Value
$571
PnL
+$12.7
Record
52%
773-714 (1487)
Invested
$493.55
Value
$504.73
PnL
+$11.18
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$380.61
Value
$388.71
PnL
+$8.1
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$258.97
Value
$264.48
PnL
+$5.51
Record
4%
19-453 (472)
Invested
$13.54
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.