Sharks vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $559 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$558.95
$21.12
50.5¢ → 53.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50.5¢ | $468.27 | $491.32 | +$23.05 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.5¢ | $52.57 | $50.9 | -$1.67 | 55% 441-368 (809) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $5.64 | $5.52 | -$0.12 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.77 | +$0.45 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $4.68 | $4.14 | -$0.54 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.3 | -$0.05 | 40% 614-914 (1528) |
Invested
$468.27
Value
$491.32
PnL
+$23.05
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$52.57
Value
$50.9
PnL
-$1.67
Record
55%
441-368 (809)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.12
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0.45
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$4.14
PnL
-$0.54
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
40%
614-914 (1528)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.