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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026fkALG2FalconsTESFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)44% (11377–14474, n=25851)79% (1403–380, n=1783)52% (7654–6941, n=14595)
Consensus PnL$7.7M-$8.8M$1.0M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #2was PM monthly #87PM monthly #145PM monthly #10
Sides with the consensus89% (34 of 38 open)60% (51 of 85 open)no open consensus position76% (258 of 341 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
  • Esports +22 pts n=1282, ROI +7%
  • NBA +13 pts n=512, ROI +6%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic———Other Sports −28 pts, n=15
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%—92% of 1798 at avg 73¢, ROI +7%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)—5% (won 73% of 83)29% (won 11% of 403)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)—17% (won 84% of 298)16% (won 38% of 228)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)—25% (won 88% of 448)15% (won 62% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)—54% (won 98% of 969)40% (won 94% of 553)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

17 on the same side, 16 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026fkALG2FalconsTESFlaznorp
Rams vs. Commanders
opposite sides · consensus Rams
—Rams $33K—Commanders $221
Lions vs. Dolphins
opposite sides · consensus Lions
—Lions $31K—Dolphins $165
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $19K—Over $398
Le Havre AC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $7.5K—Over $3.1K
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus 1. FC Union Berlin
—SC Freiburg $1.5K—1. FC Union Berlin $5.9K
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $213—Under $6.4K
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $2.6K—Under $1.0K
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $434—Under $3.0K
Orleans: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Martin Krumich
opposite sides · consensus Martin Krumich
—Cyril Vandermeersch $338—Martin Krumich $2.9K
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $151—Yes $2.7K
Viking FK vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $789—Under $1.7K
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $345—Over $2.0K
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $855—Over $899
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Bulls
—Bulls $455—76ers $592
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Getafe CF
—Villarreal CF $187—Getafe CF $588
Knoxville: Emile Hudd vs Justin Boulais
opposite sides · consensus Emile Hudd
—Justin Boulais $5—Emile Hudd $270
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-08?
same side · consensus No
No $632K——No $54K
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $35K—Over $2.7K
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
same side · consensus Colts
Colts $22KColts $14K——
Giants vs. Eagles
same side · consensus Giants
—Giants $26K—Giants $735
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
same side · consensus Juan Manuel Cerundolo
—Juan Manuel Cerundolo $19K—Juan Manuel Cerundolo $4.1K
Broncos vs. Panthers
same side · consensus Broncos
—Broncos $21K—Broncos $306
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $1.2K—Under $13K
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. PSV: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $9.9K—Over $735
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $766—Over $7.4K
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $3.5K—Over $2.7K
Orleans: Luka Pavlovic vs Hugo Grenier
same side · consensus Luka Pavlovic
—Hugo Grenier $2.0K—Hugo Grenier $2.4K
Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)
same side · consensus Trabzonspor
—Trabzonspor $699—Trabzonspor $3.2K
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $2.1K—Over $3
Spread: PSV (-1.5)
same side · consensus SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden
—SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden $29—SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden $1.5K
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $367—Under $761
Celtic FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $509—Under $54
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $113—Under $285