Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$113.56

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares16,323

Combined PnL+$103.33

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,072

Combined PnL+$10.23

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 56.7¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$101.35	49% 507-531 (1038)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 42¢	$3.3K	$1.4K	+$16.32	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
KY Kyn008	Overavg 58¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.05	48% 313-335 (648)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$2.0K	$956.66	-$12.08	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$527.03	$518.85	-$8.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$441.62	$437.81	-$3.81
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56.5¢	$1.5K	$899.46	+$19.05	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 43.3¢	$12.5K	$855.35	-$16.35	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 41¢	$499.99	$212.5	+$7.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 41¢	$211.77	$90	+$3.18	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 65¢	$54.47	$48.19	-$6.28	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$35.82	$35.41	-$0.42	59% 7304-5065 (12369)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 58¢	$30.31	$30.57	+$0.27	50% 32540-32687 (65227)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$7,078.23

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$101.35

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$3,264.33

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$16.32

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Kyn008

Over

Invested

$1,282.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.05

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,982.23

Value

$956.66

PnL

-$12.08

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Under$527.0343.2¢-$8.27

Over$441.6258¢-$3.81

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,527.52

Value

$899.46

PnL

+$19.05

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$12,508.72

Value

$855.35

PnL

-$16.35

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$212.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$211.77

Value

$90

PnL

+$3.18

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$54.47

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$6.28

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.82

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$0.42

Record

59%

7304-5065 (12369)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$30.31

Value

$30.57

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.