Knoxville: Emile Hudd vs Justin Boulais

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Justin Boulais (57%) · Justin Boulais at 67¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 15

Emile Hudd33¢Justin Boulais67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Justin Boulais

Consensus Traders

Justin Boulais 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.6K

Combined PnL

-$963.51

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 67¢

+14% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJustin Boulais at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Boulais

12 of 21 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Emile Hudd33%

Justin Boulais67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Emile Hudd9 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares47,120

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Justin Boulais12 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares34,011

Combined PnL+$637.18

Emile Hudd — 43%Justin Boulais — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Emile Huddavg 40.1¢	$17.3K	$14.2K	$-3.0K	48% 121-132 (253)
RN1	Justin Boulaisavg 60.2¢	$7.7K	$7.8K	+$162.62	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Justin Boulaisavg 58.6¢	$6.8K	$6.1K	-$11.31	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SL SlickRick123	Justin Boulaisavg 62¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$40	47% 6203-6908 (13111)
VE VenusianCTR	Emile Huddavg 44.4¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
FL Flaznorp	Justin Boulaisavg 43.4¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$366.71	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Emile Huddavg 31.4¢	$821.97	$1.1K	+$288.16	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 31.4¢	$704.24	$862.97	+$158.72
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 29.3¢	$117.73	$247.16	+$129.43
LI LimousinARB<$100	Emile Huddavg 59.4¢	$615.92	$479.71	-$136.21	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 59.4¢	$498.97	$323.62	-$175.35
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 46.1¢	$116.95	$156.1	+$39.15
machinelearned	Justin Boulaisavg 47.7¢	$385.07	$454.57	+$69.5	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
EU Eulhunter	Justin Boulaisavg 47.3¢	$325.3	$444.2	+$126.51	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
PA Paul973973CTR	Emile Huddavg 88¢	$400	$415.91	+$15.91	89% 1104-142 (1246)
CI cigarettes	Justin Boulaisavg 63.5¢	$317.5	$337.5	+$20	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
GA Gaditima	Justin Boulaisavg 68¢	$339.99	$337.49	-$2.5	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
OJ ojgCTR	Emile Huddavg 33.6¢	$161.42	$184.75	+$23.33	51% 3965-3777 (7742)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 60.4¢	$123.57	$123.04	+$8.07	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 60.4¢	$83.86	$93.01	+$9.53
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 36.3¢	$33.06	$30.03	-$1.46
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Justin Boulaisavg 62.1¢	$105.7	$111.8	+$6.1	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 40¢	$936.9	$100.8	-$272.51	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 40¢	$364.56	$77.47	-$287.09
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 34.3¢	$8.75	$23.33	+$14.58
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 60.8¢	$66.85	$67.65	+$0.8	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Emile Huddavg 24.2¢	$43	$39.35	+$28.95	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Emile Huddavg 24¢	$7.2	$27.45	+$20.25	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
OM omnibus-076daa	Justin Boulaisavg 76¢	$56.72	$11.21	-$45.51	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Emile Huddavg 54.9¢	$654.95	$10.4	+$42.33	58% 2812-2017 (4829)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Emile Huddavg 100¢	$24.05	$9.95	-$14.1	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Emile Huddavg 54.6¢	$507.95	$6.88	+$28.57	56% 1967-1522 (3489)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Justin Boulaisavg 38¢	$173.96	$4.54	-$15.75	46% 33216-38836 (72052)

robustmstCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$17,254.89

Value

$14.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

48%

121-132 (253)

RN1

Justin Boulais

Invested

$7,674.68

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$162.62

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Justin Boulais

Invested

$6,784.86

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$11.31

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SlickRick123

Justin Boulais

Invested

$4,960

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$40

Record

47%

6203-6908 (13111)

VenusianCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$3,289.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Flaznorp

Justin Boulais

Invested

$1,198.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$366.71

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$821.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$288.16

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Both legs:

Emile Hudd$704.2431.4¢+$158.72

Justin Boulais$117.7329.3¢+$129.43

LimousinARB<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$615.92

Value

$479.71

PnL

-$136.21

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

Emile Hudd$498.9759.4¢-$175.35

Justin Boulais$116.9546.1¢+$39.15

machinelearned

Justin Boulais

Invested

$385.07

Value

$454.57

PnL

+$69.5

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

Eulhunter

Justin Boulais

Invested

$325.3

Value

$444.2

PnL

+$126.51

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

Paul973973CTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$400

Value

$415.91

PnL

+$15.91

Record

89%

1104-142 (1246)

cigarettes

Justin Boulais

Invested

$317.5

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$20

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

Gaditima

Justin Boulais

Invested

$339.99

Value

$337.49

PnL

-$2.5

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

ojgCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$161.42

Value

$184.75

PnL

+$23.33

Record

51%

3965-3777 (7742)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$123.57

Value

$123.04

PnL

+$8.07

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

Both legs:

Justin Boulais$83.8660.4¢+$9.53

Emile Hudd$33.0636.3¢-$1.46

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Justin Boulais

Invested

$105.7

Value

$111.8

PnL

+$6.1

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$936.9

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$272.51

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Both legs:

Justin Boulais$364.5640¢-$287.09

Emile Hudd$8.7534.3¢+$14.58

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$66.85

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$43

Value

$39.35

PnL

+$28.95

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

efntrickCTR<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$7.2

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$20.25

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

omnibus-076daa

Justin Boulais

Invested

$56.72

Value

$11.21

PnL

-$45.51

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

flatbarrelCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$654.95

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$42.33

Record

58%

2812-2017 (4829)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$24.05

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$14.1

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

SchruteBucksCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$507.95

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$28.57

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

ferrariChampions2026

Justin Boulais

Invested

$173.96

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$15.75

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Research grade

NeutralJustin Boulais at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Boulais

12 of 21 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Justin Boulais wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.