Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Lions (75%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lions vs. Dolphins

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (75%) · Dolphins at 26¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Lions75¢Dolphins25¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$235.25

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 25.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions75%

Dolphins26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins9 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares47,685

Combined PnL+$230.63

Lions3 traders

Total Value$666.43

Total Shares893

Combined PnL+$4.61

Dolphins — 75%Lions — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$137.21	46% 5200-6052 (11252)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$62.94	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
VeryLucky888CTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$28.75	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$529.9	$538.08	+$8.18	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$347.61	$354.56	+$6.95
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 74¢	$182.28	$183.52	+$1.23
DA darkumbreon88	Lionsavg 74¢	$530.31	$533.9	+$3.58	64% 1961-1091 (3052)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lionsavg 74¢	$293.86	$297.5	+$3.64	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 74¢	$168.86	$170	+$1.14
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$125	$127.5	+$2.5
FL FlaznorpCTR	Dolphinsavg 26.6¢	$114.81	$158.86	+$0.89	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
DV dv-pmCTR	Dolphinsavg 26¢	$140.92	$138.21	-$2.71	49% 3327-3529 (6856)
GC GC-PCTR	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$125	$127.5	+$2.5	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
38 38791873984189	Lionsavg 74.7¢	$498.56	$117.12	+$1.45	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$28	$28.56	+$0.56	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$25.17	$25.68	+$0.5	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lionsavg 76¢	$15.83	$15.42	-$0.42	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 25¢	$3.75	$11.46	-$0.01	54% 9740-8132 (17872)

hi774cCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$6,860.25

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$137.21

Record

46%

5200-6052 (11252)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$3,147

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$62.94

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

VeryLucky888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,437.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$28.75

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$529.9

Value

$538.08

PnL

+$8.18

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Both legs:

Dolphins$347.6125¢+$6.95

Lions$182.2874¢+$1.23

darkumbreon88

Lions

Invested

$530.31

Value

$533.9

PnL

+$3.58

Record

64%

1961-1091 (3052)

NM-PARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$293.86

Value

$297.5

PnL

+$3.64

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

Both legs:

Lions$168.8674¢+$1.14

Dolphins$12525¢+$2.5

FlaznorpCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$114.81

Value

$158.86

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

dv-pmCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$140.92

Value

$138.21

PnL

-$2.71

Record

49%

3327-3529 (6856)

GC-PCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$125

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

38791873984189

Lions

Invested

$498.56

Value

$117.12

PnL

+$1.45

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

OddstormCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$28

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

sentrioCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$25.17

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lions

Invested

$15.83

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3.75

Value

$11.46

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

Research grade

AvoidDolphins at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.