Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Getafe CF (69%) · Getafe CF at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Villarreal CF38¢Getafe CF62¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Getafe CF

Consensus Traders

Getafe CF 69%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$65.42

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 62.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Villarreal CF38%

Getafe CF63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Getafe CF9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,808

Combined PnL+$162.68

Villarreal CF4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,143

Combined PnL-$97.26

Getafe CF — 69%Villarreal CF — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Getafe CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Villarreal CF) and the top 1000 (11 on Getafe CF) disagree here.

whaleGetafe CF 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrGetafe CF 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVillarreal CF 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Getafe CF 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Getafe CFavg 59¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$149.74	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VeryLucky888CTR	Villarreal CFavg 41¢	$1.2K	$979.35	-$99.76	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
FL Flaznorp	Getafe CFavg 57¢	$575.85	$588.14	+$12.29	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0xheavy888	Getafe CFavg 62¢	$248	$246	-$2	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Villarreal CFavg 38¢	$485	$186.73	+$2.43	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b<$100	Getafe CFavg 60¢	$43.2	$44.28	+$1.08	52% 240-226 (466)
38 38791873984189	Getafe CFavg 61.7¢	$107	$40.59	-$0.11	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SE sentrio<$100	Getafe CFavg 57¢	$40.36	$29.85	+$0.47	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
GH ghorrock<$100	Getafe CFavg 57.5¢	$19.28	$11.86	+$0.77	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Villarreal CFavg 37¢	$11.6	$11.75	+$0.15	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Pan9X<$100	Getafe CFavg 62¢	$9.3	$9.38	+$0.07	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Getafe CFavg 59¢	$8.85	$9.23	+$0.38	49% 507-531 (1038)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Villarreal CFavg 38¢	$6.29	$6.21	-$0.08	46% 30563-35669 (66232)

omnibus-076daa

Getafe CF

Invested

$2,481.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$149.74

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VeryLucky888CTR

Villarreal CF

Invested

$1,230

Value

$979.35

PnL

-$99.76

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Flaznorp

Getafe CF

Invested

$575.85

Value

$588.14

PnL

+$12.29

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0xheavy888

Getafe CF

Invested

$248

Value

$246

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Villarreal CF

Invested

$485

Value

$186.73

PnL

+$2.43

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$43.2

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$1.08

Record

52%

240-226 (466)

38791873984189

Getafe CF

Invested

$107

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

sentrio<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$40.36

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

ghorrock<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$19.28

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Pan9X<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$6.29

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Getafe CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Villarreal CF) and the top 1000 (11 on Getafe CF) disagree here.

whaleGetafe CF 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrGetafe CF 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedVillarreal CF 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Getafe CF 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Getafe CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.