Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 1. FC Union Berlin (45%) · 1. FC Union Berlin at 73¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 8

SC Freiburg28¢1. FC Union Berlin72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

1. FC Union Berlin

Consensus Traders

1. FC Union Berlin 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$947.32

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 72.5¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Union Berlin at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Union Berlin

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SC Freiburg28%

1. FC Union Berlin73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

1. FC Union Berlin5 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares19,397

Combined PnL+$1.4K

SC Freiburg6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares16,298

Combined PnL-$462.39

1. FC Union Berlin — 45%SC Freiburg — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on 1. FC Union Berlin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 1. FC Union Berlin) and the top 1000 (12 on SC Freiburg) disagree here.

whale1. FC Union Berlin 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrSC Freiburg 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-picked1. FC Union Berlin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SC Freiburg 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	1. FC Union Berlinavg 61.9¢	$7.1K	$8.3K	+$1.2K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	SC Freiburgavg 43¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$295.94	54% 89-75 (164)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	1. FC Union Berlinavg 57¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$176.96	49% 507-531 (1038)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	1. FC Union Berlinavg 57.1¢	$5.4K	$2.7K	+$29	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ 1. FC Union Berlin leg	1. FC Union Berlinavg 57.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$64.95
└ SC Freiburg leg	SC Freiburgavg 41.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$35.96
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	SC Freiburgavg 43.8¢	$5.2K	$1.5K	-$125.14	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	1. FC Union Berlinavg 58.1¢	$532.83	$478.04	-$15.22	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ 1. FC Union Berlin leg	1. FC Union Berlinavg 58.1¢	$245.42	$306.15	+$60.72
└ SC Freiburg leg	SC Freiburgavg 37.9¢	$236.98	$171.9	-$75.95
SE sentrio	1. FC Union Berlinavg 57¢	$532.22	$300.26	+$9.85	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0xheavy888	1. FC Union Berlinavg 56¢	$283.58	$296.86	+$13.27	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	SC Freiburgavg 44¢	$400	$162	-$14	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
AN Anon455CTR	SC Freiburgavg 34.8¢	$122.44	$96.71	-$25.73	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
PA Pan9X<$100	1. FC Union Berlinavg 64.9¢	$69.09	$61.74	+$2.84	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	SC Freiburgavg 42¢	$100	$40.5	-$1.5	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	SC Freiburgavg 42¢	$5	$2.03	-$0.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$7,060.26

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

SC Freiburg

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$295.94

Record

54%

89-75 (164)

Multicoloured-Serf

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$4,034.65

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$176.96

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$5,422.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$29

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

1. FC Union Berlin$1,538.7557.1¢+$64.95

SC Freiburg$1,140.1641.8¢-$35.96

ferrariChampions2026CTR

SC Freiburg

Invested

$5,207.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$125.14

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

38791873984189ARB<$100

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$532.83

Value

$478.04

PnL

-$15.22

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

1. FC Union Berlin$245.4258.1¢+$60.72

SC Freiburg$236.9837.9¢-$75.95

sentrio

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$532.22

Value

$300.26

PnL

+$9.85

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0xheavy888

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$283.58

Value

$296.86

PnL

+$13.27

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

SC Freiburg

Invested

$400

Value

$162

PnL

-$14

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Anon455CTR

SC Freiburg

Invested

$122.44

Value

$96.71

PnL

-$25.73

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Pan9X<$100

1. FC Union Berlin

Invested

$69.09

Value

$61.74

PnL

+$2.84

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

darkumbreon88CTR

SC Freiburg

Invested

$100

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

SC Freiburg

Invested

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Union Berlin at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Union Berlin

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on 1. FC Union Berlin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 1. FC Union Berlin) and the top 1000 (12 on SC Freiburg) disagree here.

whale1. FC Union Berlin 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrSC Freiburg 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-picked1. FC Union Berlin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SC Freiburg 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 1. FC Union Berlin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.